RESEARCH ARTICLES | RISK + CRYSTAL BALL + ANALYTICS

Modeling Time-Series Forecasts with @RISK

Oct 18 2011


Making decisions for the future is becoming harder and harder because of the ever increasing sources and rate of uncertainty that can impact the final outcome of a project or investment. Several tools have proven instrumental in assisting managers and decision makers tackle this: Time Series Forecasting, Judgmental Forecasting and Simulation.  

This webinar is going to present these approaches and how they can be combined to improve both tactical and strategic decision making. We will also cover the role of analytics in the organization and how it has evolved over time to give participants strategies to mobilize analytics talent within the firm.  

We will discuss these topics as well as present practical models and applications using @RISK.

Discussion Topics

Overview of time-series analysis

  • Analytics and the organization
    • The risk enabled planning and forecasting process
    • Different organizational models for developing and delivering time series analytics to organizational decision makers.
  • The history of time series analysis methods (from the Census Method to Today)
  • Presentation of forecasting inputs and outputs
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Modeling Time-Series Forecasts with @RISK: Concepts and Overview

Data-driven methods

  • Linear Regression and Curve Fitting
  • Autoregressive models
  • Random Walks
  • Trend Charts
  • Real Options
  • Moving Averages
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Modeling Time-Series Forecasts with @RISK: Part 2 - Data Driven Methods

Integrating expert judgment/opinion into your time-series predictions

  • Working with ranges to understand the forecaster’s bias.
  • Modeling Expert Opinion using a Power Curve Envelop Method
  • Time-Phased Decision Trees

Curve Fitting and the Enveloppe method

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Time-Series Forecasting with Excel and @RISK : Curve Fitting and the Enveloppe method

Decision Trees and Time-Phased Options

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Time-Series Forecasting with Excel and @RISK : Decision Trees and Time-Phased Options

 

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See the full-length webinar on YouTube.

Time-Series Forecasting with Excel and @RISK : Decision Trees and Time-Phased Options

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I would like to thank the people at Palisade for arranging the webinar as well as their continued support and availability to answer our questions as well as provide insight. 

If you have any questions or comments, please don't hesitate to drop me a line at 1-888-879-8440 x101 or send me a note at  [email protected].